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SPY Elliott Wave Analysis 5.22.2019

The following chart is showing the Blue Box and the Elliott Wave count. However, it is not a straight forward pattern that can be read with absolute clarity in real time. In this chart I put together an idea of how an Elliott Wave Grand Super Cycle would look for the United States. A Wave Within a Wave. Supercycle (I) peaked at 36.6 and Supercycle (IV) bottomed at 41.2…no overlap.

The Elliott Waves Theory or Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) is one of the more popular price action patterns used by advanced traders and is used by some of the top fund managers. The Elliott Wave principle is based on Ralph Nelson Elliott’s conviction that social, or crowd, behavior tends to trend, and reverse, in identifiable patterns, or cycles. As shown in the chart, the red numbers are the Supercycle degrees.

Grand Supercycle waves are comprised of Supercycles, and Supercycles are comprised of Cycles. The idea is that the Grand Supercycle in the SPY ETF is getting closer to the 320.00 level which is the 1.618% extension from its all-time low and the top of the Blue Box.

This chart shows the wave count that is now my preferred long-term count.

Now let’s take a closer look at Cycle Wave V and Supercycle Wave (V).

It is obvious the United States saw it's last growth expansion ending in what we call the "tech bubble" or ".com bubble". Elliott Wave Theory.

Note, in Elliott Wave rules, wave 4 should not overlap wave 1. This analysis is strictly focused on Elliot wave theory and the current supercycle of the SAP500. The blue 1 is the first leg within the Supercycle degree and it … From the way it appears on the charts, we are looking at the end of the 5th wave of the supercycle for the SAP500.

By guidelines this could lead to a correction of between 40-50% over the course of the corrective wave pattern.

I also included data from the Federal Reserve, U.S. total non-farm payrolls, to mark what would be the beginning of the end for U.S. economic expansion. Elliott Wave Theory holds that each wave within a wave count contains a complete 5-3 wave count of a smaller cycle. The longest wave count is called the Grand Supercycle.
What it does provide is good risk/reward opportunities to enter in the direction of the trend. And red 3 should reach the Blue Box.